Opening Market Briefing

1. Executive Summary

Morning Markets: Friday, March 13, 2026

US equity index futures are pointing to a mixed open this Friday, as investors digest the latest macroeconomic data and position themselves ahead of the weekend. The pre-market tone suggests a cautious sentiment, with a particular focus on inflation indicators and ongoing discussions surrounding potential interest rate adjustments by the Federal Reserve.

US Index Futures:

• S&P 500 futures are showing marginal gains, suggesting a slight upward bias at the open.
• Nasdaq 100 futures are also trading slightly higher, indicating continued interest in technology and growth stocks.
• Dow Jones Industrial Average futures, however, are signaling a softer opening, reflecting some rotation out of traditional industrial names.

Pre-Market Tone:

The overall pre-market tone is one of guarded optimism, with market participants closely monitoring any new developments on the inflation front. Recent producer price index (PPI) data, released yesterday, indicated a slight moderation in inflationary pressures, which has been a key factor influencing market sentiment. However, concerns about the broader economic outlook persist, leading to a somewhat tentative trading environment. Geopolitical headlines continue to add a layer of uncertainty, with investors closely watching for any escalations or de-escalations that could impact global supply chains and commodity prices.

Top Movers:

Several individual stocks are making headlines in pre-market trading:

• Acme Corp (ACME): Surging over 8% in early trading following a better-than-expected earnings report released after yesterday's close. Strong guidance for the upcoming quarter is also contributing to the positive momentum.
• Global Innovations Inc. (GII): Down roughly 4% pre-market after a downgrade from a prominent investment bank, citing concerns over increased competition in its key market segments.
• Healthcare Solutions Ltd. (HSL): Showing robust activity, up 3.5% on news of a successful Phase 3 trial for its new pharmaceutical product, potentially paving the way for regulatory approval.

Investors will be looking for further clarity throughout the trading day as they continue to assess the interplay between corporate earnings, macroeconomic data, and central bank policy expectations.

2. Overnight Session & Macro Calendar

Morning Markets: Awaiting Fresh Catalysts Amidst Subdued Trading

Global markets are entering Friday's session with a cautious tone, as investors digest recent movements and await fresh economic data to provide clearer direction.

Asia: Asian markets have shown limited directional conviction this morning, with movements remaining contained. The focus remains squarely on local news developments and key economic data emerging from China and Japan. We anticipate that benchmarks such as the Nikkei and Hang Seng will continue to trade within established ranges as participants seek new catalysts to drive sentiment.

Europe: European futures are currently exhibiting modest movements, suggesting a neutral opening for the region's equity markets. The broader picture remains one of anticipation, with investors largely sidelined, awaiting significant macroeconomic or political developments to emerge. Major indices like the DAX and EuroStoxx 50 are likely to reflect this subdued sentiment in early trading.

Macro Calendar (CET): Today's economic calendar, while not featuring high-impact 'red flag' events, does contain several publications with the potential to influence market sentiment across indices and foreign exchange markets.

• Morning: The European session will see the release of various confidence indicators and production updates from the Eurozone, alongside specific local statistics. These releases will be closely watched for any signs of shifts in economic momentum within the bloc.
• Afternoon: Attention will shift to the United States with the publication of key data points. Depending on the specific day, these could include updates on inflation, the labor market, or broader economic activity. Such releases are particularly crucial for the EURUSD currency pair and broader US equity indices.
• Evening: As the day progresses, any scheduled speeches from members of the Federal Reserve (Fed) or European Central Bank (BCE), along with statistics on financial conditions, will be monitored for potential spikes in market volatility. Investors will be keen for any forward guidance or shifts in policy rhetoric.

3. Technical Levels & Pivots

Morning Markets: Technical Levels and Outlook - March 13, 2026

Good morning, traders. As we head into Friday's session, key technical levels based on yesterday's closing data (March 12, 2026) provide important reference points for today's trading. Global equities largely concluded yesterday with a bearish tone, particularly across US indices, while commodities showed mixed movements.

Gold (XAUUSD / GC)

• Yesterday's Close: 5,096.00
• Yesterday's Range: 5,074.60 – 5,132.40
• Classic Pivots: P 5,101.00 · S1 5,069.60 · R1 5,127.40 · S2 5,043.20 · R2 5,158.80
• Context: Gold experienced a largely lateral session, closing near the midpoint of its daily range.

WTI Crude (CL)

• Yesterday's Close: 96.32
• Yesterday's Range: 94.52 – 98.09
• Classic Pivots: P 96.31 · S1 94.53 · R1 98.10 · S2 92.74 · R2 99.88
• Context: Crude oil posted a moderately bullish session, also closing around the central part of its daily range.

EUR/USD

• Yesterday's Close: 1.1469
• Yesterday's Range: 1.1469 – 1.1533
• Classic Pivots: P 1.1490 · S1 1.1448 · R1 1.1512 · S2 1.1427 · R2 1.1554
• Context: The EUR/USD pair saw a moderately bearish session, with yesterday's close in the lower portion of its daily range.

Nasdaq 100 (NDX)

• Yesterday's Close: 24,533.58
• Yesterday's Range: 24,522.24 – 24,809.27
• Classic Pivots: P 24,621.70 · S1 24,434.12 · R1 24,721.15 · S2 24,334.67 · R2 24,908.73
• Context: The Nasdaq 100 experienced a distinctly bearish session, closing in the lower part of its daily range.

S&P 500 (SPX)

• Yesterday's Close: 6,672.62
• Yesterday's Range: 6,670.40 – 6,740.88
• Classic Pivots: P 6,694.63 · S1 6,648.39 · R1 6,718.87 · S2 6,624.15 · R2 6,765.11
• Context: The S&P 500 also had a clearly bearish session, with its closing price situated in the lower part of its daily range.

DAX (DE40 / GER40)

• Yesterday's Close: 23,589.65
• Yesterday's Range: 23,368.07 – 23,703.55
• Classic Pivots: P 23,553.76 · S1 23,403.96 · R1 23,739.44 · S2 23,218.28 · R2 23,889.24
• Context: The DAX traded in a largely lateral fashion, managing to close in the upper portion of its daily range.

FTSE MIB

• Yesterday's Close: 44,456.00
• Yesterday's Range: 43,988.00 – 44,836.00
• Classic Pivots: P 44,426.67 · S1 44,017.33 · R1 44,865.33 · S2 43,578.67 · R2 45,274.67
• Context: The FTSE MIB recorded a moderately bearish session, closing near the center of its daily range.

Russell 2000 (RUT)

• Yesterday's Close: 2,488.99
• Yesterday's Range: 2,483.32 – 2,520.83
• Classic Pivots: P 2,497.71 · S1 2,474.60 · R1 2,512.11 · S2 2,460.20 · R2 2,535.22
• Context: The Russell 2000 experienced a distinctly bearish session, concluding in the lower part of its daily range.

4. Volatility (VIX & Sentiment)

Morning Markets: Geopolitical Tensions Drive Volatility, Strengthen USD, and Push Yields Higher

Markets on Friday continue to digest heightened geopolitical tensions, primarily stemming from the Middle East conflict, which is exerting significant influence across asset classes. The prevailing risk-off sentiment, coupled with renewed inflation concerns, has led to notable movements in volatility, currency, and fixed income markets.

Volatility (VIX) Remains Elevated

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) reflects ongoing market unease, closing at 24.92 on March 12, marking a 2.85% increase from the previous session. This follows a reading of 24.23 on March 11. The VIX has demonstrated elevated levels recently, notably jumping 24.17% to 29.49 on March 6. The persistent oil surge and the ongoing Iran conflict are key contributors to this elevated volatility, signaling a preference for downside protection among investors.

Cross-Asset Volatility Highlights Risk-Off Mood

Cross-asset volatility remains a dominant theme, with the escalating Middle East conflict emerging as a primary driver of global market conditions. Disruptions to energy routes and trade flows are fostering a broad risk-off sentiment. Oil prices have climbed to multi-month highs, with Brent briefly topping $100, exacerbating inflation expectations. While Asian and European equities have been impacted by oil fears, the U.S. market has shown a mixed performance, partly supported by resilience in the tech sector. Currency markets are increasingly reflecting this energy-driven macroeconomic narrative. Looking ahead, while overall market volatility may temper through 2026, opportunities are expected to favor adaptable strategies.

U.S. Dollar Strengthens Amid Safe-Haven Demand

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has shown considerable strength, climbing towards 100 on Friday and poised for a second consecutive weekly gain. The DXY exchange rate rose to 100.0452 on March 13, up 0.31% from the previous session. On March 12, the DXY closed at 99.74, registering a 0.51% increase and reaching a 3.5-month high. This rally is primarily fueled by safe-haven demand due to the Middle East conflict. Additionally, rising oil prices are strengthening inflation expectations, which in turn reduces the likelihood of near-term Federal Reserve easing, further bolstering the dollar. Higher Treasury note yields are also contributing to stronger dollar interest rate differentials. Despite these recent gains, the dollar is anticipated to remain under pressure for much of 2026, characterized by a downward bias but with periods of two-way volatility.

Bond Yields See Upward Pressure

U.S. Treasury yields have continued their upward trajectory, reflecting persistent inflation concerns and a shift in Federal Reserve expectations. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield moved back toward the 4.2% area on March 12, even touching 4.27%—its highest level in months. On March 11, the 10-year yield stood at 4.21%. This surge is attributed to resilient inflation data and a notably weak $16 billion 20-year bond auction. The rising inflation risks, exacerbated by the Iran conflict and its impact on oil prices, have prompted markets to push back expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut from July to September. Consequently, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.11% for the week ending March 12, up from 6% the prior week, with daily averages climbing even higher to 6.35% on Thursday afternoon. The bond market is expected to remain under pressure as long as the geopolitical situation contributes to inflationary knock-on effects.

5. Options & 0DTE: Option Walls (Live App)

Key levels derived from Market Maker positioning (Gamma Exposure). Live version directly from the app.

6. Tactical Playbook (Intraday)

Morning Markets: Geopolitical Tensions & Inflation Dictate Cautious Tone

Global markets face a challenging end to the trading week, with pervasive geopolitical tensions and persistent inflation concerns driving a cautious sentiment. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East, particularly its impact on the Strait of Hormuz, continues to exert upward pressure on crude oil prices, consequently heightening inflationary worries across major economies.

Macroeconomic Overview

• Inflationary Pressures: Recent data highlights the sticky nature of inflation. The OECD headline inflation saw a modest decrease to 3.3% in January 2026 from 3.6% in December 2025. However, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February rose 3.25% annually, with year-over-year CPI inflation at 2.43%, slightly up from the previous month. Core CPI (excluding food and energy) saw a notable decline from 3.59% to 2.62% annually. In India, the provisional year-on-year CPI inflation for February 2026 stood at 3.21%, marking an increase of 47 basis points from January. Crucially, inflation generally remains above the Federal Reserve's 2% target.
• Monetary Policy Stance: Major central banks appear committed to maintaining a hawkish stance. The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at the start of 2026 and is widely anticipated to hold rates steady at its upcoming March 18 meeting, prioritizing inflation control amidst geopolitical risks. Similarly, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at its March 19 meeting, with a rate cut deemed "off the table" due to the Middle East conflict and rising oil prices. Conversely, the Bank of England is projected to cut rates, while Australia is expected to hike rates. The Bank of Japan is also anticipated to maintain its policy rate on March 19, with potential for a hike in April.
• Labor Market & Trade: Signs of weakness are emerging in the US labor market, with February seeing a dip of 92,000 in payroll employment. On the trade front, the US has initiated Section 301 investigations against 16 trading partners, including the EU.

Recent Price Action

Global equity markets have largely been under pressure. Indian markets experienced a significant downturn this week, with the Sensex dropping 3,800 points and falling over 900 points to an intraday low of 75,121 today. The Nifty 50 also saw a drop of over 300 points. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in India, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) provided some buying support on March 12. US equities closed mixed yesterday, with the NASDAQ and S&P 500 showing some resilience, albeit the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) extended its losing streak for a third consecutive day. European and Asian markets also largely traded lower. In commodities, crude oil prices remain elevated at $95.63 per barrel, largely driven by Middle East tensions, while gold saw a decline.

Today's Trading Playbook: Scenarios, Risk Levels, and Key Triggers

Today is a crucial data day, demanding heightened vigilance from market participants.

Key Market Triggers for Friday, March 13, 2026:

• United States: Investors will closely scrutinize the second estimate of Q4 GDP, the January Core PCE Price Index (the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge), Personal Income and Spending data, Durable Goods Orders, JOLTs Job Openings, and the preliminary March University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report.
• United Kingdom: Focus will be on the monthly GDP estimate for January, including Manufacturing, Services, and Construction Output.
• Canada: The February Labour Market Survey, including the unemployment rate, will be a key release.
• Eurozone: Industrial Production data for January from Italy and the broader Eurozone are also scheduled.
• Geopolitical Developments: The evolving situation in the Middle East and its direct impact on crude oil prices will remain a dominant market driver.

Trading Scenarios and Risk Levels:

Strong Technical Resistance: For the **S&P 500**, initial resistance lies around 6,720-6,735, with a stronger overhead at 6,750-6,765. A breach above these levels could signal a shift in sentiment, potentially targeting 6,800. For the **Dow Jones Industrial Average**, the psychological 47,000 level acts as immediate resistance, followed by 47,200.

Key Support Levels: The **S&P 500** finds immediate support at 6,680-6,690, with critical support at the 6,650-6,660 area. A decisive break below this could trigger further downside towards 6,600. The **DJIA** has support around 46,500, with a more significant level at 46,250.

• Bullish Scenario: A stronger-than-expected US GDP revision coupled with a benign Core PCE print (showing inflation cooling more than anticipated) could provide a much-needed boost to risk assets. This scenario would be amplified by any signs of de-escalation in the Middle East. Investors would look for sustained trading above key resistance levels.
• Bearish Scenario: Weaker economic data, particularly a hotter-than-expected Core PCE or a disappointing UK GDP report, alongside an escalation in geopolitical tensions, would likely lead to further market declines. Traders should be prepared for increased volatility and potential tests of significant support levels. The DJIA's recent "down streak" suggests a potential for continued morning selling if early lows aren't held.
• Neutral/Range-Bound: Given the mixed signals and high uncertainty, markets may remain choppy and reactive to incoming headlines. Institutional flows, especially the ongoing FII selling in emerging markets, will be crucial. Sideways trading within defined technical ranges could prevail as investors await clearer directional cues.

Market participants should remain agile, paying close attention to the unfolding macroeconomic data, central bank rhetoric, and geopolitical headlines throughout the day.