Opening Market Briefing

1. Executive Summary

Morning Markets: Cautious Optimism as US Futures Edge Higher Amidst Selective Flows

Wednesday opens with a mixed market sentiment, characterized by a lack of strong directional cues for major equity indices. Instead, we observe ongoing sector rotations and highly selective capital flows across various asset classes, underscoring a tactical approach by market participants.

US Index Futures & Pre-Market Tone US index futures are currently displaying a slightly positive bias, with the US500 and NAS100 showing a modest gain of approximately +0.03%. This marginal upward movement sets a cautiously optimistic tone for the pre-market, yet the primary focus remains on key technical levels. Traders are advised to monitor for potential breakouts or fakeouts around recent highs and lows, as these movements could dictate intraday trends rather than broad market momentum. The overall market environment suggests an anticipation of new macro catalysts, keeping investors on edge and fostering a highly tactical trading landscape.

Top Movers & Tactical Focus In an environment devoid of strong systemic direction, today's "top movers" are anticipated to emerge from company-specific news, earnings surprises, or significant price action reacting to established support and resistance levels. Given the prevailing selective flows, individual stocks or sectors demonstrating resilience or vulnerability to specific headlines will likely stand out. Investors should remain highly attentive to any sudden news or unexpected economic data releases, as these could trigger swift, localized movements within the broader market.

Volatility Outlook The Volatility Index (VIX) is currently trading at intermediate levels, signaling a moderate degree of market caution. While this suggests that the market is pricing in a risk of tactical corrections, there is no indication of systemic stress. This balanced volatility environment supports the current tactical approach, allowing for measured responses to market developments rather than panic-driven reactions.

Today's Outlook The day's trading is expected to remain highly tactical, with market participants focusing on well-defined support and resistance levels. Agility and responsiveness to incoming data and unexpected headlines will be crucial as the market awaits fresh macro catalysts to establish a clearer directional bias.

2. Overnight Session & Macro Calendar

Morning Markets Update: May 13, 2026

Good Wednesday morning to our readers. Financial markets are exhibiting a rather cautious tone across the globe as investors await fresh catalysts.

Asia

Asian markets are showing limited strong directional conviction this morning. Price movements remain contained, with a primary focus on local news and key economic data emerging from China and Japan. We anticipate the Nikkei and Hang Seng to reflect this lack of strong momentum, trading within narrow ranges as participants digest regional updates and position ahead of broader global themes.

Europe

European futures are indicating a subdued open, suggesting a neutral setup for the session. The overall market picture currently lacks a clear direction, with investors patiently awaiting new macroeconomic or political catalysts to emerge. Attention will likely be on the DAX and EuroStoxx as they navigate this period of consolidation, with any significant news having the potential to trigger sharper movements.

Macro Calendar (CET)

Today's macroeconomic calendar is of moderate significance, though several publications could influence market sentiment for indices and FX:

• Morning: Focus will be on confidence and production indicators from the Eurozone, alongside various local updates. These releases could provide early cues on regional economic health.
• Afternoon: Attention shifts to the United States with key data points on inflation, labor, or economic activity (depending on the specific release today). These reports are crucial for dictating the direction of the EURUSD exchange rate and major US indices.
• Evening: Any scheduled speeches from members of the Federal Reserve (Fed) or European Central Bank (ECB) will be closely monitored. Additionally, statistics on financial conditions should be watched for potential spikes in volatility across asset classes.

3. Technical Levels & Pivots

Morning Markets Update: Wednesday, May 13, 2026

Welcome to today's Morning Markets Update, focusing on key technical levels across major assets following yesterday's close. We examine the intraday pivots, supports, and resistances that could influence trading today, May 13, 2026.

Gold (XAUUSD / GC)

Gold closed yesterday at 4,718.60, having traded within a range of 4,696.00 to 4,734.80. The session was moderately bullish, with the precious metal settling in the middle of its daily range. Key classic pivot levels for today are set at P 4,716.47, with immediate supports at S1 4,698.13 and S2 4,677.67. Resistances are observed at R1 4,736.93 and R2 4,755.27.

WTI Crude (CL)

WTI Crude ended yesterday's trading at 100.97, having navigated a range between 100.56 and 102.27. The session was moderately bearish, with oil closing towards the lower end of its daily range. Today's classic pivot stands at P 101.27, with immediate supports at S1 100.26 and S2 99.56. Resistances are found at R1 101.97 and R2 102.98.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair closed yesterday at 1.1727, having traded sideways within a narrow range of 1.1726 to 1.1745. The currency pair concluded the session towards the lower end of its daily range. The classic pivot point for today is P 1.1733, with supports at S1 1.1721 and S2 1.1714. Resistances are noted at R1 1.1740 and R2 1.1752.

Nasdaq 100 (NDX)

The Nasdaq 100 closed yesterday at 29,064.80, after a session that saw it range from 28,628.64 to 29,188.07. The index experienced a moderately bearish session, though it managed to close in the upper part of its daily range. For today, the classic pivot is P 28,960.50. Key support levels are S1 28,732.94 and S2 28,401.07, while resistance levels are R1 29,292.37 and R2 29,519.93.

S&P 500 (SPX)

The S&P 500 concluded yesterday at 7,400.96, with its trading range spanning from 7,338.54 to 7,409.57. The session was largely sideways, with the index closing in the upper part of its daily range. Today's classic pivot stands at P 7,383.02. Supports are identified at S1 7,356.48 and S2 7,311.99, while resistances are at R1 7,427.51 and R2 7,454.05.

DAX (DE40 / GER40)

The DAX closed yesterday at 23,954.93, navigating a range between 23,920.70 and 24,210.74. The index had a clearly bearish session, closing at the lower end of its daily range. For today, the classic pivot is P 24,028.79. Key support levels are S1 23,846.84 and S2 23,738.75, with resistances at R1 24,136.88 and R2 24,318.83.

FTSE MIB

The FTSE MIB ended yesterday at 48,991.00, with a daily range from 48,914.00 to 49,344.00. The session was moderately bearish, closing towards the lower part of its range. Today's classic pivot point is P 49,083.00. Support levels are S1 48,822.00 and S2 48,653.00, while resistance levels are R1 49,252.00 and R2 49,513.00.

Russell 2000 (RUT)

The Russell 2000 closed yesterday at 2,842.83, trading within a range of 2,799.69 to 2,861.83. The session showed a moderately bearish tone, despite closing in the upper part of its daily range. The classic pivot for today is P 2,834.78. Key support levels are S1 2,807.74 and S2 2,772.64, with resistances at R1 2,869.88 and R2 2,896.92.

4. Volatility (VIX & Sentiment)

Morning Markets: Volatility Premiums Elevated, Yields Edge Up

Global markets are exhibiting a nuanced picture this Wednesday, with implied volatility across key assets generally in line with recent averages, yet a significant risk premium remains evident in equity markets.

Volatility Overview:

• The VIX (S&P 500) currently stands at approximately 18.0%, consistent with its recent average, suggesting no immediate signs of extreme fear or complacency in the broader market.
• Similarly, the VXN (Nasdaq 100) is around 24.1%, and the GVZ (Gold) at 27.2%, both aligning with their recent historical averages.
• In the commodities space, OVX (Oil) is at approximately 75.7%, also within its recent average range.
• Despite these averages, a closer look at the S&P 500 reveals a substantial divergence between realized and implied volatility. The 10-day realized volatility is roughly 10.2%, while the VIX, representing implied volatility, is much higher at ~18.0%. This significant spread indicates that the market is currently pricing in a high risk premium for future movements.

USD and Bond Yields:

• The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.47% on May 13, 2026, marking a 0.01 percentage point increase from the prior session. The yield has firmed around 4.46% on Wednesday, approaching its highest level since June last year, partly due to stronger-than-expected US inflation data that has dampened expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.21 points, though it remains 0.07 points lower than a year ago.
• The US Dollar Index (DXY) was unchanged at 98.3062 on May 13, 2026. The dollar index held above 98 on Wednesday, supported by recent stronger-than-expected US inflation data. While the DXY has strengthened by 0.19% over the past month, it is down by 2.70% over the last 12 months. On Tuesday, the dollar index rose by +0.34%.

5. Options & 0DTE: Option Walls (Live App)

Key levels derived from Market Maker positioning (Gamma Exposure). Live version directly from the app.

6. Tactical Playbook (Intraday)

Morning Markets: Tactical Playbook - Wednesday, May 13, 2026

Good morning, traders. As we navigate Wednesday's session, our tactical playbook highlights key levels and strategies across major instruments. The prevailing bias across the board remains neutral, suggesting a focus on range-trading opportunities or market-neutral option structures around the daily pivots. Directional triggers are identified for confirmed breakouts beyond crucial resistance or support levels.

Gold (XAUUSD / GC)

• Daily Pivot: 4,716.00
• Key Levels: Support 1 (S1) at 4,697.20, Support 2 (S2) at 4,677.20. Resistance 1 (R1) at 4,736.00, Resistance 2 (R2) at 4,754.80.
• Bias: Neutral.
• Strategy: Favoring range-trading between 4,697.20 and 4,736.00, or market-neutral optional structures around the 4,716.00 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: A confirmed breakout above 4,754.80 or below 4,677.20.

WTI Crude (CL)

• Daily Pivot: 101.27
• Key Levels: S1 at 100.26, S2 at 99.56. R1 at 101.97, R2 at 102.98.
• Bias: Neutral.
• Strategy: Ideal for range-trading between 100.26 and 101.97, or market-neutral optional structures near the 101.27 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: A confirmed breakout above 102.98 or below 99.56.

EUR/USD (spot & 6E)

• Daily Pivot: 1.1733
• Key Levels: S1 at 1.1720, S2 at 1.1713. R1 at 1.1739, R2 at 1.1752.
• Bias: Neutral.
• Strategy: Suited for range-trading between 1.1720 and 1.1739, or market-neutral optional structures around the 1.1733 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: A confirmed breakout above 1.1752 or below 1.1713.

Nasdaq 100 (NDX / QQQ)

• Daily Pivot: 28,960.50
• Key Levels: S1 at 28,732.94, S2 at 28,401.07. R1 at 29,292.37, R2 at 29,519.93.
• Bias: Neutral.
• Strategy: Best for range-trading between 28,732.94 and 29,292.37, or market-neutral optional structures near the 28,960.50 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: A confirmed breakout above 29,519.93 or below 28,401.07.

S&P 500 (SPX / SPY)

• Daily Pivot: 7,383.02
• Key Levels: S1 at 7,356.48, S2 at 7,311.99. R1 at 7,427.51, R2 at 7,454.05.
• Bias: Neutral.
• Strategy: Context favors range-trading between 7,356.48 and 7,427.51, or market-neutral optional structures around the 7,383.02 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: A confirmed breakout above 7,454.05 or below 7,311.99.

DAX (DE40 / ODAX)

• Daily Pivot: 24,028.79
• Key Levels: S1 at 23,846.84, S2 at 23,738.75. R1 at 24,136.88, R2 at 24,318.83.
• Bias: Neutral.
• Strategy: Suited for range-trading between 23,846.84 and 24,136.88, or market-neutral optional structures near the 24,028.79 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: A confirmed breakout above 24,318.83 or below 23,738.75.

FTSE MIB (FTSEMIB / FIB / MIBO)

• Daily Pivot: 49,083.00
• Key Levels: S1 at 48,822.00, S2 at 48,653.00. R1 at 49,252.00, R2 at 49,513.00.
• Bias: Neutral.
• Strategy: Ideal for range-trading between 48,822.00 and 49,252.00, or market-neutral optional structures around the 49,083.00 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: A confirmed breakout above 49,513.00 or below 48,653.00.

Russell 2000 (RUT / RTY / IWM)

• Daily Pivot: 2,834.78
• Key Levels: S1 at 2,807.74, S2 at 2,772.64. R1 at 2,869.88, R2 at 2,896.92.
• Bias: Neutral.
• Strategy: Context favors range-trading between 2,807.74 and 2,869.88, or market-neutral optional structures near the 2,834.78 pivot.
• Directional Triggers: A confirmed breakout above 2,896.92 or below 2,772.64.

This commentary is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment advice or a solicitation for public savings. The levels indicated are based on market data believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed; trading with derivatives and leveraged instruments carries a high level of risk.