Opening Market Briefing

1. Executive Summary

Morning Markets: Monday, February 23, 2026

The trading week commences with a mixed tone across global equity markets, as investors navigate an environment characterized by sector rotations and highly selective capital flows. Overall market direction remains somewhat elusive, with participants keenly awaiting fresh macroeconomic catalysts to provide clearer guidance.

US Index Futures and Pre-market Tone

US equity index futures, including the S&P 500 (US500) and Nasdaq 100 (NAS100), are indicating a marginally positive bias in pre-market trading, registering a +0.03 average. This modest uptick suggests a cautious optimism, though market participants are advised to monitor for potential breakouts or fakeouts around recent highs and lows. The broader pre-market sentiment reflects the ongoing lack of strong directional conviction, with flows remaining selective as traders look for specific opportunities rather than broad-based rallies.

Volatility and Risk Assessment

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is currently positioned at intermediate levels. This indicates that the market is pricing in a moderate degree of risk for tactical corrections. However, there is no immediate indication of systemic stress, suggesting that any potential pullbacks are expected to be contained rather than indicative of a broader market downturn.

Key Drivers and Tactical Focus

With a neutral bias observed in both the EURUSD currency pair and key commodities like Gold and WTI crude oil, the market's focus remains firmly on fundamental drivers. For FX, interest rate differentials between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, alongside inflation and labor market data, continue to dictate movements. Commodity prices are influenced by a blend of macro factors and specific news related to interest rates and global growth prospects.

For today's session, the tactical focus will be on identifying trading opportunities around established support and resistance levels. Given the prevailing environment of mixed signals, investors should remain highly attentive to any sudden headlines, which could trigger immediate, albeit potentially short-lived, market reactions. The absence of strong catalysts means that intraday movements are likely to be driven by technical levels and event-specific news.

2. Overnight Session & Macro Calendar

Morning Markets Update

Global Overview

Equity markets globally are exhibiting a lack of strong directional conviction this Monday morning, as investors digest recent movements and look for fresh catalysts. Futures across major regions suggest a cautious start to the trading week.

Asia Markets

Asian equities opened the week without a strong directional bias. Movements remained contained as market participants focused on local news and anticipated key economic data releases from China and Japan. Both the Nikkei and Hang Seng indices reflected this cautious sentiment, registering limited changes in early trading.

European Markets

European futures are indicating a largely subdued open, with a neutral picture prevailing across the board. The DAX and EuroStoxx are expected to commence trading within tight ranges as investors await new macroeconomic or political developments to provide clearer guidance. The immediate outlook remains neutral, underscoring a 'wait-and-see' approach.

Key Macro Calendar (CET)

The economic calendar for today presents moderate relevance, though several publications could influence market sentiment for indices and foreign exchange rates.

• Morning: Attention will be on various confidence and production indicators from the Euro area, alongside other local updates across European economies. These releases could offer insights into the region's economic health.
• Afternoon: Focus shifts to the United States, with data pertaining to inflation, labor markets, or broader economic activity (depending on today's specific releases). These statistics will be crucial for the EURUSD currency pair and broader US equity indices.
• Evening: Potential speeches from members of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and European Central Bank (ECB) are slated. Additionally, statistics on financial conditions will be closely monitored for any signs that could trigger spikes in volatility.

3. Technical Levels & Pivots

Morning Markets: Key Technical Levels

Good morning, and welcome to our Morning Markets update for Monday, February 23, 2026. As we kick off the week, here's a look at the key technical levels derived from yesterday's closing data, crucial for understanding potential intraday movements and identifying significant support and resistance zones.

Gold (XAUUSD / GC)

Yesterday's Close: 5,149.20

The session on Sunday was a clearly bullish session, closing in the middle of the daily range. Traders will be monitoring the following classical pivot levels:

• Pivot (P): 5,156.13
• First Support (S1): 5,113.47
• First Resistance (R1): 5,191.87
• Second Support (S2): 5,077.73
• Second Resistance (R2): 5,234.53

WTI Crude (CL)

Yesterday's Close: 65.68

The session on Sunday was a moderately bearish session, closing in the middle of the daily range. Key levels to watch include:

• Pivot (P): 65.72
• First Support (S1): 65.34
• First Resistance (R1): 66.07
• Second Support (S2): 64.99
• Second Resistance (R2): 66.45

EUR/USD

Yesterday's Close: 1.1827

The EUR/USD experienced a largely sideways session, closing in the upper part of the daily range. Intraday focus will be on these pivot points:

• Pivot (P): 1.1818
• First Support (S1): 1.1798
• First Resistance (R1): 1.1847
• Second Support (S2): 1.1769
• Second Resistance (R2): 1.1866

Nasdaq 100 (NDX)

Yesterday's Close: 25,012.62

The Nasdaq 100 had a moderately bullish session, closing in the upper part of the daily range. Critical technical levels are:

• Pivot (P): 24,907.93
• First Support (S1): 24,738.29
• First Resistance (R1): 25,182.25
• Second Support (S2): 24,463.97
• Second Resistance (R2): 25,351.89

S&P 500 (SPX)

Yesterday's Close: 6,909.51

The S&P 500 also showed a moderately bullish session, closing in the upper part of the daily range. Investors should monitor:

• Pivot (P): 6,887.23
• First Support (S1): 6,858.61
• First Resistance (R1): 6,938.14
• Second Support (S2): 6,807.70
• Second Resistance (R2): 6,966.76

DAX (DE40 / GER40)

Yesterday's Close: 25,260.69

Germany's DAX closed its Sunday session on a moderately bullish note, settling in the upper part of the daily range. Key levels for the day are:

• Pivot (P): 25,198.85
• First Support (S1): 25,066.65
• First Resistance (R1): 25,392.90
• Second Support (S2): 24,872.60
• Second Resistance (R2): 25,525.10

FTSE MIB

Yesterday's Close: 46,473.00

The FTSE MIB concluded Sunday with a moderately bullish session, closing in the upper part of the daily range. Critical levels include:

• Pivot (P): 46,329.67
• First Support (S1): 45,946.33
• First Resistance (R1): 46,856.33
• Second Support (S2): 45,419.67
• Second Resistance (R2): 47,239.67

Russell 2000 (RUT)

Yesterday's Close: 2,663.78

The Russell 2000 experienced a largely sideways session, closing in the middle of the daily range. Important pivot points are:

• Pivot (P): 2,662.76
• First Support (S1): 2,643.09
• First Resistance (R1): 2,683.44
• Second Support (S2): 2,622.41
• Second Resistance (R2): 2,703.11

4. Volatility (VIX & Sentiment)

Morning Markets: Volatility, Yields, and the Dollar in Focus

As markets open on this Monday morning, investors are closely monitoring dynamics across volatility, fixed income, and currency markets, each presenting nuanced signals for the week ahead.

Volatility Landscape: Elevated Risk Premium in Equities

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), often dubbed the "fear gauge" for the S&P 500, currently hovers around 19.1%. This level is broadly in line with its recent average, suggesting no evident excesses of fear or complacency across the broader equity market. Similarly, the Nasdaq 100 Volatility Index (VXN) at approximately 24.2%, the Gold Volatility Index (GVZ) at 36.4%, and the Oil Volatility Index (OVX) at 56.1% all remain consistent with their recent averages, indicating a balanced sentiment across these specific asset classes.

However, a closer look at the S&P 500 reveals a significant divergence between realized and implied volatility. The implied volatility priced by the VIX, at 19.1%, stands notably above the 10-day realized volatility of approximately 14.3%. This substantial premium suggests an elevated risk premium currently being priced into the market, implying that investors expect higher future volatility despite recent calm. This spread between implied and realized volatility is a key indicator of the VIX term structure, suggesting a market in contango where longer-dated implied volatility is higher than near-term, signaling expectations for current risks to dissipate over time, or at least a healthy premium for future uncertainty. The term structure of VIX futures is crucial for understanding where market participants perceive risk to be concentrated, offering insights beyond the spot VIX index alone.

Fixed Income: Treasury Yields Decline Amid Mixed Signals

In the fixed income arena, the benchmark US 10-year Treasury yield has been trading around 4.086% to 4.09% as of February 20-23, 2026. This reflects a recent downward trend, with the yield decreasing by approximately 0.44% over the past week and 4.69% over the last month. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.15 points and is 0.34 points lower than a year ago.

This movement comes as investors balance several conflicting economic indicators. While some data indicated softer economic growth, with the US economy expanding at an annualized 1.4% in Q4 (a sharp slowdown from 4.4% in Q3), firm inflation data, such as Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), also emerged. Geopolitical risks continue to play a role in market sentiment. Minutes from the latest FOMC meeting revealed divisions among policymakers, with some members suggesting the possibility of further rate hikes if inflation proves persistent, adding to the uncertainty surrounding the future path of monetary policy. Looking ahead, the US 10-year Treasury yield is anticipated to trade at 4.07% by the end of this quarter, with a further decline to 3.85% projected over the next 12 months.

Currency Markets: Dollar Navigates Trade Policy Headwinds

The US Dollar Index (DXY) registered around 97.5059 on February 23, 2026, marking a 0.30% decline from the previous session. Over the past month, the greenback has shown some strength, rising by 0.48%, though it remains down by 8.53% over the last 12 months. Against the G10 currencies, the USD has exhibited a firmer tone over the past week, gaining against the Japanese Yen (JPY) and Swedish Krona (SEK), while experiencing losses against the Norwegian Krone (NOK) and Australian Dollar (AUD).

Recent fluctuations in the dollar have been heavily influenced by developments in US trade policy. The DXY trimmed last week's gains after President Trump announced intentions to raise global tariffs from 10% to 15%, following a Supreme Court decision to strike down his "reciprocal" tariffs. This pivot back to protectionist rhetoric overshadowed other economic data and led to an initial dip, though the dollar has also shown resilience, recovering from earlier declines related to such policy shifts.

5. Options & 0DTE: Option Walls (Live App)

Key levels derived from Market Maker positioning (Gamma Exposure). Live version directly from the app.

6. Tactical Playbook (Intraday)

Morning Markets: Tactical Playbook for Monday, February 23, 2026

Today's market analysis indicates a prevailing neutral bias across major assets, suggesting that range-bound trading strategies may be most effective. Traders should closely monitor key support and resistance levels for potential intraday and multi-day opportunities, with directional triggers defined by confirmed breakouts beyond outer thresholds.

• Gold (XAUUSD / GC):

  The daily pivot for Gold is established in the area of 5,157.23. Key support levels are identified at S1 5,115.67 and S2 5,078.83, while resistance levels are at R1 5,194.07 and R2 5,235.63. The bias remains neutral, favoring range-trading strategies between 5,115.67 and 5,194.07, or market-neutral option structures around the 5,157.23 pivot. Directional triggers would require confirmed breakouts above 5,235.63 or below 5,078.83.

• WTI Crude (CL):

  WTI Crude's daily pivot is at 65.73. Support levels are S1 65.36 and S2 65.00, with resistance levels at R1 66.09 and R2 66.46. The bias is neutral, suggesting range-trading between 65.36 and 66.09, or market-neutral option strategies around the 65.73 pivot. Confirmed breakouts above 66.46 or below 65.00 will serve as directional triggers.

• EUR/USD (spot & 6E):

  The daily pivot for EUR/USD is 1.1818. Support levels are S1 1.1798 and S2 1.1769, while resistance levels are R1 1.1847 and R2 1.1866. A neutral bias prevails, favoring range-trading between 1.1798 and 1.1847, or market-neutral option structures around the 1.1818 pivot. Directional movement will be triggered by confirmed breakouts beyond 1.1866 or below 1.1769.

• Nasdaq 100 (NDX / QQQ):

  The Nasdaq 100's daily pivot is 24,907.93. Support levels are S1 24,738.29 and S2 24,463.97, with resistance levels at R1 25,182.25 and R2 25,351.89. With a neutral bias, the market is conducive to range-trading between 24,738.29 and 25,182.25, or market-neutral options around the 24,907.93 pivot. Confirmed breakouts above 25,351.89 or below 24,463.97 will act as directional triggers.

• S&P 500 (SPX / SPY):

  The S&P 500's daily pivot stands at 6,887.23. Support levels are S1 6,858.61 and S2 6,807.70, with resistance levels at R1 6,938.14 and R2 6,966.76. A neutral bias suggests range-trading strategies between 6,858.61 and 6,938.14, or market-neutral option structures around the 6,887.23 pivot. Directional triggers will occur on confirmed breakouts above 6,966.76 or below 6,807.70.

• DAX (DE40 / ODAX):

  The daily pivot for the DAX is 25,198.85. Support levels are S1 25,066.65 and S2 24,872.60, while resistance levels are R1 25,392.90 and R2 25,525.10. The bias is neutral, making range-trading between 25,066.65 and 25,392.90, or market-neutral options around the 25,198.85 pivot, suitable. Directional triggers are set at confirmed breakouts above 25,525.10 or below 24,872.60.

• FTSE MIB (FTSEMIB / FIB / MIBO):

  The FTSE MIB's daily pivot is 46,329.67. Support levels are S1 45,946.33 and S2 45,419.67, with resistance levels at R1 46,856.33 and R2 47,239.67. A neutral bias supports range-trading strategies between 45,946.33 and 46,856.33, or market-neutral option structures around the 46,329.67 pivot. Confirmed breakouts above 47,239.67 or below 45,419.67 will act as directional triggers.

• Russell 2000 (RUT / RTY / IWM):

  The Russell 2000 has a daily pivot at 2,662.76. Support levels are S1 2,643.09 and S2 2,622.41, with resistance levels at R1 2,683.44 and R2 2,703.11. The bias is neutral, favoring range-trading between 2,643.09 and 2,683.44, or market-neutral option structures around the 2,662.76 pivot. Directional triggers will be on confirmed breakouts above 2,703.11 or below 2,622.41.

This commentary is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment advice or a solicitation to public savings. The indicated levels are based on market data believed to be reliable but not guaranteed; trading with derivatives and leveraged instruments involves a high level of risk.