Opening Market Briefing

1. Executive Summary

Morning Markets: February 9, 2026

Global markets are exhibiting a mixed sentiment this Monday morning, with equity indices lacking a strong directional conviction. We are observing notable sector rotations and selective capital flows, indicating a cautious yet engaged market environment ahead of new potential catalysts.

US Index Futures and Pre-market Tone:

• US index futures, including the S&P 500 (US500) and Nasdaq 100 (NAS100), are showing a marginal negative bias in pre-market trading, hovering around -0.03.
• Traders are closely monitoring recent highs and lows for potential breakout or fakeout scenarios, which could dictate near-term directional moves. The overall tone suggests a watchful waiting as market participants seek clearer guidance.

FX and Commodities Snapshot:

• The EURUSD pair maintains a neutral bias, with its movements largely influenced by the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank policy differentials, alongside upcoming inflation and labor data.
• In commodities, both Gold and WTI crude oil are trading with a neutral bias. Their price actions reflect a blend of broader macroeconomic factors and specific news related to interest rates and global growth prospects.

Volatility and Tactical Outlook:

• The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) is situated at intermediate levels, suggesting that while the market is pricing in a moderate risk of tactical corrections, there is no immediate indication of systemic stress.
• Today's tactical focus remains on identifying new macroeconomic catalysts. Market participants are advised to adopt a more tactical approach, focusing on support and resistance levels, and remaining vigilant for any sudden headline-driven movements that could impact top movers throughout the session.

2. Overnight Session & Macro Calendar

Morning Markets: A Cautious Start to the Week

Good morning and welcome to your Monday market update. Global markets are exhibiting a rather subdued tone as investors weigh a moderate macro calendar against recent movements. The overarching sentiment points towards a period of consolidation, with participants awaiting fresh catalysts.

Asia

Asian markets are displaying a lack of strong directional conviction this morning, with movements remaining contained. The focus remains squarely on local news developments and key economic data from China and Japan. Major regional indices such as the Nikkei 225 and Hang Seng are reflecting this cautious stance, trading without significant volatility as investors digest localized information.

Europe

European futures are signaling a quiet open, with minimal movement across the board. The current outlook for European markets, including key indices like the DAX and Euro Stoxx 50, appears neutral. Investors are keenly awaiting new macro or political catalysts to provide clearer direction, suggesting a holding pattern in the near term.

Macro Calendar (CET)

Today's macro calendar, while of moderate overall significance, contains several publications that could influence market sentiment for indices and foreign exchange.

• Morning: The early hours will see the release of confidence and production indicators across the Eurozone, alongside various local updates. These could offer initial insights into the region's economic health.
• Afternoon: Attention will shift to the United States, with potential data releases covering inflation, employment, or economic activity. These figures will be crucial for the EUR/USD exchange rate and US equity indices, potentially sparking volatility.
• Evening: Later in the day, any speeches from members of the Federal Reserve (Fed) or European Central Bank (BCE) will be closely monitored. Additionally, statistics on financial conditions should be watched for possible spikes in market volatility.

3. Technical Levels & Pivots

Morning Markets: Key Technical Levels - February 9, 2026

As we begin the trading week, yesterday's closing data provides crucial technical levels for several key assets. Investors will be monitoring these supports and resistances closely, especially following a generally bullish tone across equity markets and a notable rally in Gold.

Gold (XAUUSD / GC)

Gold closed yesterday at 5,031.70 after a clearly bullish session that saw prices trade within a range of 4,988.60 – 5,069.00. The close was in the middle of the daily range. Key pivot points suggest initial support at S1 4,990.53, with stronger support at S2 4,949.37. Resistance levels are identified at R1 5,070.93 and R2 5,110.17.

WTI Crude (CL)

WTI Crude ended the session moderately bearish, closing at 62.77. Yesterday's price action was contained between 62.62 and 63.30, with the close near the lower end of the range. The pivot point stands at 62.90. Traders will look to S1 at 62.49 and S2 at 62.22 for potential support, while resistance levels are at R1 63.17 and R2 63.58.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair concluded yesterday moderately bullish at 1.1864, settling in the upper part of its 1.1813 – 1.1864 daily range. The classic pivot point is set at 1.1847. Immediate support is found at S1 1.1830, followed by S2 at 1.1797. Resistance levels are marked at R1 1.1881 and R2 1.1897.

Nasdaq 100 (NDX)

The Nasdaq 100 experienced a clearly bullish session, closing strongly at 25,075.77, towards the upper end of its 24,622.33 – 25,131.34 range. The pivot point for today is 24,943.15. Key support levels are at S1 24,754.95 and S2 24,434.14. Upside targets for resistance are R1 25,263.96 and R2 25,452.16.

S&P 500 (SPX)

The S&P 500 also had a clearly bullish session, closing at 6,932.30. The index traded within a range of 6,816.74 – 6,944.89, with the close near the high. The pivot point is 6,897.98. Support levels are at S1 6,851.06 and S2 6,769.83. Resistance is anticipated at R1 6,979.21 and R2 7,026.13.

DAX (DE40 / GER40)

Germany's DAX saw a moderately bullish close at 24,721.46, near the upper end of its 24,393.11 – 24,737.97 range. The daily pivot is 24,617.51. Immediate support lies at S1 24,497.06 and S2 24,272.65. Resistance levels are set at R1 24,841.92 and R2 24,962.38.

FTSE MIB

The FTSE MIB closed at 45,877.00 following an essentially sideways session, albeit with a close in the upper part of its 45,420.00 – 45,970.00 range. The pivot point is 45,755.67. Supports are found at S1 45,541.33 and S2 45,205.67, while resistances are at R1 46,091.33 and R2 46,305.67.

Russell 2000 (RUT)

The Russell 2000 finished a clearly bullish session at 2,670.34, closing at the upper end of its 2,611.29 – 2,676.22 range. The pivot for the session is 2,652.62. Support levels are S1 2,629.01 and S2 2,587.69. Resistance levels are at R1 2,693.94 and R2 2,717.55.

4. Volatility (VIX & Sentiment)

Morning Markets: Volatility, Currencies, and Yields

Volatility Overview

Market volatility remains a key focus as investors navigate current conditions. The VIX (S&P 500) currently stands at approximately 20.4%, moderately above its 20-day average. This suggests that the market is pricing in protection, indicating a readiness to pay for downside hedging, but without exhibiting signs of outright panic. A notable divergence exists between implied and realized volatility for the S&P 500; the VIX's implied volatility of ~20.4% is significantly higher than the 10-day realized volatility of ~14.2%, signaling an elevated risk premium in the market.

Across other asset classes, volatility metrics appear more subdued:

• The VXN (Nasdaq 100) is at approximately 24.3%, in line with its recent average, suggesting neither excessive fear nor complacency among tech investors.
• Gold volatility (GVZ) is around 34.0%, also consistent with its recent average, indicating no evident extremes of fear or complacency in the precious metals market.
• Oil volatility (OVX) stands at approximately 53.2%, aligning with its recent average and suggesting a balanced sentiment without significant excess in either direction.

Currency Markets: USD Performance

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the dollar against a basket of major currencies, is currently trading around 104.25. This level reflects a slight strengthening over the past week, driven by persistent inflation concerns and a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve. Against the Euro, the USD is trading near 1.0776, indicating modest dollar strength.

Bond Market Update: Yields Remain Elevated

In the bond market, yields have seen some upward movement amid expectations of sustained higher interest rates. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is approximately 4.10%. This figure reflects ongoing market adjustments to anticipated monetary policy and economic data. The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield, often more sensitive to immediate Fed policy, is trading around 4.45%. The inversion of the 2-year and 10-year yield curve persists, continuing to signal investor concerns regarding future economic growth.

5. Options & 0DTE: Option Walls (Live App)

Key levels derived from Market Maker positioning (Gamma Exposure). Live version directly from the app.

6. Tactical Playbook (Intraday)

Morning Markets: Tactical Playbook

As markets open this Monday, our tactical playbook for intraday and multiday strategies indicates a predominantly neutral bias across major assets, suggesting a focus on range-trading or market-neutral options around key pivot levels. Directional triggers will be crucial for confirming any significant breakouts.

Here's a detailed look at our key levels and strategies:

• Gold (XAUUSD / GC):
  • Daily Pivot: 5,029.67
  • Support Levels: S1 4,990.33, S2 4,949.27
  • Resistance Levels: R1 5,070.73, R2 5,110.07
  • Bias: Neutral. The context favors range-trading between 4,990.33 and 5,070.73, or market-neutral option structures around the 5,029.67 pivot.
  • Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above 5,110.07 or below 4,949.27.
• WTI Crude (CL):
  • Daily Pivot: 62.90
  • Support Levels: S1 62.49, S2 62.22
  • Resistance Levels: R1 63.17, R2 63.58
  • Bias: Neutral. Best suited for range-trading between 62.49 and 63.17, or market-neutral option strategies around the 62.90 pivot.
  • Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above 63.58 or below 62.22.
• EUR/USD (spot & 6E):
  • Daily Pivot: 1.1847
  • Support Levels: S1 1.1830, S2 1.1797
  • Resistance Levels: R1 1.1881, R2 1.1897
  • Bias: Neutral. A range-trading approach between 1.1830 and 1.1881, or market-neutral options around the 1.1847 pivot, appears appropriate.
  • Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above 1.1897 or below 1.1797.
• Nasdaq 100 (NDX / QQQ):
  • Daily Pivot: 24,943.15
  • Support Levels: S1 24,754.95, S2 24,434.14
  • Resistance Levels: R1 25,263.96, R2 25,452.16
  • Bias: Neutral. Favors range-trading between 24,754.95 and 25,263.96, or market-neutral option structures around the 24,943.15 pivot.
  • Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above 25,452.16 or below 24,434.14.
• S&P 500 (SPX / SPY):
  • Daily Pivot: 6,897.98
  • Support Levels: S1 6,851.06, S2 6,769.83
  • Resistance Levels: R1 6,979.21, R2 7,026.13
  • Bias: Neutral. The preferred strategy is range-trading between 6,851.06 and 6,979.21, or market-neutral options around the 6,897.98 pivot.
  • Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above 7,026.13 or below 6,769.83.
• DAX (DE40 / ODAX):
  • Daily Pivot: 24,617.51
  • Support Levels: S1 24,497.06, S2 24,272.65
  • Resistance Levels: R1 24,841.92, R2 24,962.38
  • Bias: Neutral. Suited for range-trading between 24,497.06 and 24,841.92, or market-neutral option structures around the 24,617.51 pivot.
  • Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above 24,962.38 or below 24,272.65.
• FTSE MIB (FTSEMIB / FIB / MIBO):
  • Daily Pivot: 45,755.67
  • Support Levels: S1 45,541.33, S2 45,205.67
  • Resistance Levels: R1 46,091.33, R2 46,305.67
  • Bias: Neutral. Consider range-trading between 45,541.33 and 46,091.33, or market-neutral option structures around the 45,755.67 pivot.
  • Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above 46,305.67 or below 45,205.67.
• Russell 2000 (RUT / RTY / IWM):
  • Daily Pivot: 2,652.62
  • Support Levels: S1 2,629.01, S2 2,587.69
  • Resistance Levels: R1 2,693.94, R2 2,717.55
  • Bias: Neutral. Favors range-trading between 2,629.01 and 2,693.94, or market-neutral option structures around the 2,652.62 pivot.
  • Directional Triggers: Confirmed breakouts above 2,717.55 or below 2,587.69.