Opening Market Briefing

1. Executive Summary

Morning Markets: Cautious Anticipation Ahead of Catalysts

The global market tone on Tuesday, February 10, 2026, remains notably mixed, characterized by equity indices lacking a strong directional conviction. This environment sees continued sectoral rotations and selective capital flows.

For US index futures, specifically the US500 and NAS100, pre-market indications suggest a marginal positive bias, around +0.03. Investors are advised to remain vigilant for potential breakouts or fakeouts around recent highs and lows as the session unfolds.

The broader market sentiment is reflective of a wait-and-see approach. In the FX market, EURUSD maintains a neutral bias, with its direction primarily influenced by the Fed/ECB differential and upcoming inflation and labor data. Similarly, commodities like gold and WTI crude oil also exhibit a neutral bias, with their movements driven by a combination of macroeconomic factors and specific news related to interest rates and growth prospects.

Volatility, as measured by the VIX, is currently at intermediate levels. This suggests that the market is pricing in a moderate risk of tactical corrections without indicating systemic stress. The pre-market tone, therefore, is one of cautious optimism, with market participants poised for the next set of macroeconomic catalysts.

Tactical Focus & Top Movers:

• The market is actively awaiting new macro catalysts that could provide clearer direction.
• Today's trading is expected to be more tactical, focusing on key support and resistance levels.
• While specific top movers are yet to be definitively identified in the pre-market, attention will be sharply focused on any sudden headline news that could trigger significant price action in individual stocks or sectors.

2. Overnight Session & Macro Calendar

Morning Markets Update

Global markets are exhibiting a cautious sentiment as investors weigh recent movements and await fresh catalysts. Today's session sees limited clear directional conviction across major regions.

Asia

Asian markets are trading without a strong directional bias, showing contained movements. The focus remains keenly on local news flow and upcoming economic data from key economies such as China and Japan. Major indices like the Nikkei 225 and the Hang Seng are reflecting this mixed sentiment, with investors seeking clarity from regional economic indicators.

Europe

European futures indicate a subdued opening, suggesting a largely neutral landscape for the region. Investors appear to be in a holding pattern, awaiting new macroeconomic data or significant political developments to provide fresh impetus. Indices such as the DAX and the EuroStoxx 50 are anticipated to reflect this wait-and-see approach as the trading day unfolds.

Macro Calendar (CET)

The macroeconomic calendar for today presents a moderate level of significance, though several publications could influence market sentiment for both equity indices and foreign exchange (FX) rates.

• Morning: Investors will be monitoring confidence and production indicators from the Eurozone, alongside various local updates across the region. These releases could offer insights into the current health of the European economy.
• Afternoon: Attention will shift to the United States, with key data releases concerning inflation, labor markets, or economic activity (depending on the day's specific schedule). These figures are particularly crucial for the EUR/USD currency pair and broader US equity indices.
• Evening: Any scheduled speeches from members of the Federal Reserve (Fed) or the European Central Bank (ECB), as well as statistics on financial conditions, will be closely watched. Such events have the potential to introduce volatility spikes into the market.

3. Technical Levels & Pivots

Morning Markets: Key Technical Levels Update

Today, Tuesday, we bring you a review of key technical levels for major financial instruments, based on yesterday's closing data as of February 10, 2026. These levels provide critical reference points for intraday trading and market analysis.

Gold (XAUUSD / GC)

Gold closed yesterday at 5,054.20, after trading in a range between 5,011.00 and 5,100.90. The session was largely sideways, with the closing price settling in the central part of its daily range. Key classic pivot levels for today are P 5,055.37, with supports at S1 5,009.83 and S2 4,965.47. Resistance levels are R1 5,099.73 and R2 5,145.27.

WTI Crude (CL)

WTI Crude closed yesterday at 64.37, having traded within a range of 63.87 to 64.50. The session was broadly lateral, with the commodity closing near the upper end of its daily range. Today's classic pivot is at P 64.25. Support levels are S1 63.99 and S2 63.62, while resistance levels are R1 64.62 and R2 64.88.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair closed yesterday at 1.1908, following a trading range of 1.1901 to 1.1920. The session showed a moderate bullish bias, with the pair closing in the central part of its daily range. The classic pivot point for today is P 1.1909. Supports are found at S1 1.1899 and S2 1.1890, with resistances at R1 1.1918 and R2 1.1929.

Nasdaq 100 (NDX)

The Nasdaq 100 closed yesterday at 25,268.14, ranging between 24,876.28 and 25,337.54. The index experienced a moderately bullish session, closing towards the upper part of its daily range. Today's classic pivot is P 25,160.65. Key support levels are S1 24,983.77 and S2 24,699.39, while resistance levels are R1 25,445.03 and R2 25,621.91.

S&P 500 (SPX)

The S&P 500 closed yesterday at 6,964.82, with a trading range from 6,905.87 to 6,980.10. The session was largely lateral, with the index concluding near the upper end of its daily range. The classic pivot point for today is P 6,950.26. Support levels are S1 6,920.43 and S2 6,876.03, and resistance levels are R1 6,994.66 and R2 7,024.49.

DAX (DE40 / GER40)

The DAX closed yesterday at 25,014.87, after trading within a range of 24,714.89 to 25,016.01. The session was moderately bullish, with the index closing near the upper boundary of its daily range. Today's classic pivot is at P 24,915.26. Support levels are S1 24,814.50 and S2 24,614.14, while resistance levels are R1 25,115.62 and R2 25,216.38.

FTSE MIB

The FTSE MIB closed yesterday at 46,823.00, having traded between 46,146.00 and 46,839.00. The index experienced a clearly bullish session, closing towards the top of its daily range. The classic pivot point for today is P 46,602.67. Supports are identified at S1 46,366.33 and S2 45,909.67, with resistances at R1 47,059.33 and R2 47,295.67.

Russell 2000 (RUT)

The Russell 2000 closed yesterday at 2,689.05, with its daily range spanning from 2,659.96 to 2,695.45. The index recorded a moderately bullish session, closing in the upper portion of its daily range. Today's classic pivot is P 2,681.49. Support levels are S1 2,667.52 and S2 2,646.00, while resistance levels are R1 2,703.01 and R2 2,716.98.

4. Volatility (VIX & Sentiment)

Morning Markets: Volatility Premiums Remain Elevated, USD Softens Ahead of Key Data

Markets are starting the week with a focus on volatility dynamics and upcoming economic releases. While overall implied volatility across major asset classes remains broadly in line with recent averages, a closer look at the S&P 500 reveals an elevated risk premium.

• Equity Volatility: The VIX (S&P 500) stands at approximately 17.4%, aligning with its recent mean. However, the implied volatility priced by the VIX is notably above the 10-day realized volatility of around 14.2%, suggesting an elevated risk premium in the equity market. The VXN (Nasdaq 100) is also consistent with its recent average at approximately 23.4%, indicating no evident excess of fear or complacency in tech stocks.
• Cross-Asset Volatility: In other asset classes, the GVZ (Gold volatility) is around 32.8% and OVX (Oil volatility) is at approximately 50.8%. Both figures are broadly in line with their recent averages, showing no significant anomalies in sentiment for these commodities.

USD Performance and Outlook

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has experienced further weakness, falling to 96.8390 on Tuesday, a marginal 0.03% decrease from the previous session. This follows a decline of over 1% in the past two sessions, pushing the DXY below the 97 mark. The softening dollar is partly attributed to concerns over a potential reduction in foreign demand for dollar-denominated assets, specifically after reports indicated that Chinese regulators advised financial institutions to limit their holdings of US Treasuries. The dollar is currently nursing steep losses ahead of crucial U.S. economic data, including jobs and inflation reports due later this week, which are anticipated to influence the Federal Reserve's policy trajectory. Over the past month, the DXY has weakened by 2.05%, and it is down by 10.30% over the last 12 months. The broader outlook for the USD in 2026 suggests a gradual weakening trend, though interspersed with periods of volatility.

Bond Market Update

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark US 10-year Treasury note eased to 4.19% on February 10, 2026, marking a 0.02 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Treasury yields have remained relatively steady as market participants await this week's key economic reports, which are expected to offer further clues on the Federal Reserve's interest rate path. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to maintain current interest rates in March, with market expectations pricing in two rate cuts later in the year. Of note, Alphabet (Google) recently entered the bond market with a rare 100-year bond issuance to fund its significant artificial intelligence infrastructure needs, highlighting strong demand for long-duration assets from specific investor segments.

5. Options & 0DTE: Option Walls (Live App)

Key levels derived from Market Maker positioning (Gamma Exposure). Live version directly from the app.

6. Tactical Playbook (Intraday)

Morning Markets: Tactical Playbook for Tuesday, February 10, 2026

Today's market analysis suggests a largely neutral bias across several key assets, favoring range-trading strategies. Traders should focus on defined support and resistance levels, with directional triggers identified for potential breakouts.

Here's a detailed look at the intraday/multiday tactical playbook:

• Gold (XAUUSD / GC):
  • Daily pivot is set at 5,055.67.
  • Key support levels are S1 at 5,010.43 and S2 at 4,965.77.
  • Key resistance levels are R1 at 5,100.33 and R2 at 5,145.57.
  • Bias remains neutral, making range-trading strategies between 5,010.43 and 5,100.33, or market-neutral optional structures around the 5,055.67 pivot, most suitable.
  • Directional triggers will activate only on confirmed breakouts above 5,145.57 or below 4,965.77.
• WTI Crude (CL):
  • The daily pivot stands at 64.24.
  • Support levels are S1 at 63.97 and S2 at 63.61.
  • Resistance levels are R1 at 64.60 and R2 at 64.87.
  • With a neutral bias, range-trading between 63.97 and 64.60, or market-neutral optional structures around the 64.24 pivot, are advisable.
  • Directional moves are anticipated only with confirmed breakouts beyond 64.87 or below 63.61.
• EUR/USD (spot & 6E):
  • The daily pivot is at 1.1909.
  • Supports are S1 at 1.1898 and S2 at 1.1889.
  • Resistances are R1 at 1.1918 and R2 at 1.1929.
  • A neutral bias suggests range-trading within 1.1898 and 1.1918, or market-neutral optional strategies around the 1.1909 pivot.
  • Triggers for directional trading are confirmed breakouts above 1.1929 or below 1.1889.
• Nasdaq 100 (NDX / QQQ):
  • The daily pivot is at 25,160.65.
  • Supports are S1 at 24,983.77 and S2 at 24,699.39.
  • Resistances are R1 at 25,445.03 and R2 at 25,621.91.
  • The bias is neutral, favoring range-trading between 24,983.77 and 25,445.03, or market-neutral optional structures around the 25,160.65 pivot.
  • Directional triggers require confirmed breakouts above 25,621.91 or below 24,699.39.
• S&P 500 (SPX / SPY):
  • The daily pivot is set at 6,950.26.
  • Support levels are S1 at 6,920.43 and S2 at 6,876.03.
  • Resistance levels are R1 at 6,994.66 and R2 at 7,024.49.
  • With a neutral bias, range-trading between 6,920.43 and 6,994.66, or market-neutral optional structures around the 6,950.26 pivot, are recommended.
  • Confirmed breakouts above 7,024.49 or below 6,876.03 will act as directional triggers.
• DAX (DE40 / ODAX):
  • The daily pivot is at 24,915.26.
  • Supports are S1 at 24,814.50 and S2 at 24,614.14.
  • Resistances are R1 at 25,115.62 and R2 at 25,216.38.
  • The bias is neutral, making range-trading between 24,814.50 and 25,115.62, or market-neutral optional structures around the 24,915.26 pivot, suitable.
  • Directional triggers require confirmed breakouts beyond 25,216.38 or below 24,614.14.
• FTSE MIB (FTSEMIB / FIB / MIBO):
  • The daily pivot is at 46,602.67.
  • Support levels are S1 at 46,366.33 and S2 at 45,909.67.
  • Resistance levels are R1 at 47,059.33 and R2 at 47,295.67.
  • With a neutral bias, range-trading between 46,366.33 and 47,059.33, or market-neutral optional structures around the 46,602.67 pivot, are advisable.
  • Directional moves are anticipated only with confirmed breakouts beyond 47,295.67 or below 45,909.67.
• Russell 2000 (RUT / RTY / IWM):
  • The daily pivot stands at 2,681.49.
  • Supports are S1 at 2,667.52 and S2 at 2,646.00.
  • Resistances are R1 at 2,703.01 and R2 at 2,716.98.
  • A neutral bias suggests range-trading within 2,667.52 and 2,703.01, or market-neutral optional strategies around the 2,681.49 pivot.
  • Triggers for directional trading are confirmed breakouts above 2,716.98 or below 2,646.00.

This commentary is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment advice or a solicitation for public savings. The levels indicated are based on market data believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed; trading with derivatives and leverage involves a high level of risk.